The Optimist Pessimist Realist Triangle

This blog was inspired by words of Horace, the Roman poet, written nearly 2,000 years ago. These lines are from his Odes (ii,10):

In sadness hope, in gladness fear,
‘Gainst coming change will fortify
Your breast. The storm that Jupiter
Sweeps o’er the sky
He chases. Why should rain today
Bring rain tomorrow?
Be brave in trouble; meet distress
With dauntless front; but when the gale
Too prosperous blows, be wise no less,
And shorten sail.

You can read the whole Ode here.

Each situation can happen in different ways. It can turn out this way, the other way or a third, rather unexpected way. Let’s look at an example. It is time to shop for groceries. An optimist just sets off, thinking that nothing can go wrong. S(he) is going to be disappointed if for some reason the store is closed.

What about the pessimist? S(he) can become so entangled in fear that perhaps cannot even make it to the store. “What if I have a car accident? What if I trip on ice? What if the store is closed and I will have to starve? What if a meteorite falls on my head?” One inflates the probability of quite improbable outcomes to such a degree that one ends ups paralyzed from fear.

And what would a realist do? It is all about balance. We need to keep all outcomes in mind, but ascribe the right probabilities to each and every one of them. If it is Sunday, the probability that the store is closed is high, so we check their opening hours. On other days before 7 p.m. and before noon on Saturday the probability of the store being closed is so low that we do not need to check anything. (I am talking about opening hours in Slovenia.) Yes, in winter one can trip on ice, but by walking slowly and carefully we reduce the probability to a large extent. Similarly we reduce the probability of a car accident by driving carefully. The probability of a meteorite falling on one’s head is so low that it can be neglected.

As you can see the realist in this story is the least emotional. S(he) makes a list of possible outcomes, defines probabilities for each situational variation, does everything to prevent misfortune and goes shopping calmly, knowing that s(he) has prepared properly. There will be no disappointment, if the store is closed, for there is always a small probability that it could be. And the fears will not prevent the person from shopping.

“In sadness hope, in gladness fear…” can be read in terms of probability: Even though there is sadness and the situation is severe, there is a certain probability of betterment. Likewise, in happy times let’s not forget about being cautious, because there is a certain probability of thing getting worse. Change is the only sure thing in life, be it for the better or for worse.

Although it should be no substitute for medical treatment and advice, ascribing a small probability to certain events can be a useful technique in fighting anxiety thoughts. And again and again it is all about Balancing the Beast.

Take care,

Helena Smole, author of:

– a fantasy novel with romance Vivvy and Izzy the Dwarf: A series about relationships

– Balancing the Beast, a book offering a bright view of schizoaffective disorder ˗ bipolar or manic-depressive type